Bitcoin approaches a favorable seasonal window
Bitcoin (BTC) faces a period of calm in the market, typical of the boreal summer, but historical data suggest that everything could accelerate in the coming months, as one of the most moved quarters for this digital asset is coming.
While August shows an average monthly return of just 1.66%, with an even negative median of -7,49%, history indicates that the fourth quarter tends to be one of the strongest (almost speaking) of the year for bitcoin.
According to Coinglass figures, the average BTC yield in the fourth quarter is 85.42%, with a median of 5.31%. In particular, October and November have been months with positive returns in most years, highlighting averages of 21.89% and 46,02%. A noticeable difference from December, which usually has negative returns, with averages of just 4.75%.
Also, in seven of the last 10 years, bitcoin finished the fourth quarter on a positive note. In 2020, BTC rose by 168%; in 2017, 215%; in 2015, 81%; and in 2013, 479%, as follows:
In contrast, August is presented as a weak month for bitcoin. For example, the price of the asset has fallen in five of the last eight Augusts, including a decrease of 13.88 per cent in 2022 and -1.29% in 2023. These figures align with the typical behavior of financial markets during the summer in the northern hemisphere, when activity tends to decline and volatility tends to moderate.
Looking ahead, projections point to a recovery. In the third quarter of 2025, BTC recorded a positive cumulative return of 8.76% so far. The second quarter also closed in green, with 29.74%, after a fall of 11,82% in the first quarter. This sequence suggests a consolidation phase prior to a possible new momentum movement.
The behavior that bitcoin has had, where its rally has stopped, is described by analyst Marija Matic as something natural. For her, it does not mean the arrival of a Winter Winter, but a consolidation that could precede an upsurge driven by seasonal factors, macroeconomic dynamics, and market expectations.
What price will bitcoin go to?
From a cyclical perspective, analysts such as Ryan Lee of Bitget Research argue that BTC, by the end of 2025, will come at a price of more than $130,000. For its part, Standard Chartered estimates an extension of the bullish cycle with targets that include $300,000 in 2026, 400,000 in 2027, and 500,000 by 2028, reported CryptoNews.
For his part, analyst Willy Woo considers that the current bullish cycle is in its final stretch, although it does not rule out continuity beyond 2025, taking into account one of the key trends in the market, which is .
In addition to seasonal data, other indicators reinforce the thesis of an active fourth quarter. According to Weiss Crypto, gold behavior can anticipate bitcoin movements. The firm notes that, historically, the minimums of the precious metal precede those of the BTC. In 2018, for example, gold fell sharply in August and bitcoin hit bottom in December. This pattern has been repeated at other key market moments.
In that sense, if the current gold behavior serves as a reference, BTC could be expected to record a new bullish stretch in the coming months. The correlation between the two assets has been highlighted as a useful tool for anticipating cycles.
Investors who follow seasonal patterns could see in this behavior an additional argument for holding a long-term position. However, the data also show that volatility remains a dominant feature of the market.
For now, the market enters a context of indecision and balance in August. So far this year, BTC has accumulated a 20% increase, and if the dynamics of previous years are repeated, activity may rebound as the last quarter of the year approaches.
While the immediate present suggests calm, historical data and market projections point to bitcoin approaching a higher-yielding window by the end of 2025. We’ll see about it.
About The Author
