Cryptocurrency research and brokerage firm K33 has issued a warning about a potential correction in Bitcoin’s price during September, driven by underestimated macroeconomic risks and historically negative seasonality.
According to The Block’s coverage, the report highlights that these elements could lead the flagship digital asset to a “bearish squeeze” below $100,000, with key support levels signaled at $101,000 and $94,000.
K33’s analysis, led by its head of research, Vetle Lunde, emphasizes the impact of the commercial tariffs reintroduced in the U.S. in early August, which, although declared illegal by a federal court, remain in effect until mid-October.
“Soon, very soon, the impact of these tariffs will begin to show up appropriately in the release of U.S. economic data,” Lunde wrote, as quoted by The Block, referring specifically to the releases of the inflation indices — producer price (PPI) and consumer price (CPI) — in mid-September as possible triggers for potential sell-offs.
Adding to the macro factors is the adverse seasonality of September, which has historically been the only month with negative average returns for Bitcoin since 2011. According to data from Coinglass, Bitcoin has closed in the red in nine of the last twelve Septembers, with average declines of 3% even in bull cycles, such as the 13% correction in 2019 and 19% in 2014.
Global macro uncertainty, exacerbated by persistent U.S. inflation data, has weakened expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its Sept. 16 meeting, putting further pressure on risk assets.
Cryptocurrencies extended the correction last week, just after the release of the U.S. PCE, whose core reading stood at 2.9% in July, higher than the previous month and the highest since January.
Negative seasonality adds to the macro factors
On the technical front, K33 researchers have warned about high leverage in the derivatives market: Bitcoin’s perpetual futures open interest has hit yearly highs, with funding rates fluctuating between negative and neutral, exposing the asset to “squeezes” in either direction, albeit with higher downside risk if macro data disappoints.
Additionally, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) activity has shown a slowdown, with the products recording their third-worst month in flows since their launch in January 2024 in August, with a net capital outflow of $751 million, according to data from SoSoValue.
This dynamic has weakened the correlation between ETF flows and prices due to new supply dynamics, such as corporate acquisitions and large investor rotations into Ethereum.
Watch for volatility and selling pressure.
The comparison with gold highlights the divergence. While the precious metal has hit new all-time highs of $3,508 per ounce this week, fueled by global uncertainty and fears of interference in the Fed’s independence as President Donald Trump threatens to fire central bank officials, Bitcoin shows a near-zero or negative correlation with gold over 30 periods. 90 and 365 days, K33 noted in his report.
These metrics reinforce the cryptocurrency’s role as a distinct type of hedge, but also underscore its current vulnerability. News outlets have noted that gold’s recent strength is due to the search for safe havens amid an uncertain macro environment, with central banks accumulating more gold than US Treasuries for the first time since 1996.
Additionally, low participation in CME Bitcoin futures — which recently hit all-time lows — and lower exposure to leveraged ETFs like BITX, indicate a volatility-prone market.
Lunde maintains a defensive stance in the short term, recalling the sell-off and downtrend driven by Trump’s tariffs in the first quarter of 2025. However, he insists that the long-term bullish thesis remains intact, supported by expansionary fiscal policies, possible rate cuts, and the inclusion of cryptocurrencies in retirement plans such as 401(k).
Bitcoin’s long-term bullish thesis remains intact
The immediate dynamics in the crypto market are influenced by long-term holder selling, which on Friday amounted to 97,000 BTC liquidated in a single day, the largest daily sell-off by that group so far in 2025, and reconfigurations by certain whales, which have recently been selling their bitcoins to accumulate Ethereum.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading above $112,000, up 0.8% over the past 24 hours but down nearly 10% from its all-time high of $124,000 in August, according to data from CoinGecko.
Despite the short-term bearish projection, October has been historically bullish for Bitcoin, with average gains of 80% in the final quarter of the year. Analysts such as Bernstein, Standard Chartered, VanEck, Bitwise, and Tom Lee agree that Bitcoin could emerge towards a new all-time high in the third quarter to close 2025 at around $200,000 or even higher.
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