Gold points to an explosive bullish movement, and that's great for bitcoin

Gold, a precious metal that has served as a refuge of value for humans over the past 5,000 years, could be in the run-up to a new impulse.

This is proposed by Sean Brodrick, financial analyst at Weiss Ratings, who identifies a technical formation known as the ascending triangle, a pattern that usually anticipates price breaks upwards.

From its rebound below $2,500 to surpass $US3,300 per ounce, gold has maintained firm resistance around USD 3,400, while the support line has been rising, indicating a progressive build-up by buyers.

According to Brodrick, if the gold manages to break the $3,400 per ounce barrier with conviction, it would make way for a new bullish stage. This movement would come against macroeconomic factors that favor the rise of the metal, including the expectation of interest rate cuts by the United States Federal Reserve (FED), the loss of strength of the dollar, and a weakened labor market in the United States.

The specialist says the market already discounts a near-89 per cent chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. In addition, up to three cuts are projected between September and January. While Brodrick considers this optimistic scenario, he acknowledges that the general perception points to more flexible monetary policy, which tends to weaken the dollar and therefore drives gold.

The political context also adds to the pressure. US President Donald Trump has insisted that rates should fall by three percentage points and has publicly criticized Fed President Jerome Powell, even suggesting his dismissal. Some of his nominees have already voted in favour of cuts, which could tilt the institution toward policies that benefit gold.

Adding to this is a fragile labour market. Brodrick recalls the latest employment report in the US. The U.S., which registered a creation of just 73,000 non-agricultural jobs, compared with an expectation of 104,000.

Revisions to the previous months’ decline added 258,000 jobs. The combination of this data reinforces the idea of a more expansive monetary policy.

The reality is that the labor market is stagnating. A deteriorating labour market could force the EDF to cut rates, regardless of inflation, the analyst said.

In parallel, the dollar has fallen almost 9% so far this year against other currencies, such as the euro, yuan, and yen. In addition, the green ticket had its worst first semester since 1973, as reported by CryptoNoticias.

Although there have been slight recoveries, the overall trend of the dollar (and related financial instruments) remains bearish. According to Brodrick, if the S&P 500 index’s performance is measured in gold and not dollars, a real value loss of 11.8 per cent in a year is revealed. In other words, even if nominal prices rise, purchasing power measured in gold falls.

Brodrick also points to structural factors such as the increase in U.S. public debt, which already exceeds $37 trillion, as well as gold purchases by central banks and skepticism about official economic data. It even sets an extreme scenario: a possible international agreement to weaken the dollar, similar to the 1985 Plaza Agreement.

Some analysts already model a Mar-a-Lago Agreement, which would imply a 20% depreciation in the dollar and a gold that could reach USD 5,000 per ounce, says the specialist.

Seasonality also plays in favor of metal. Historically, the second half of the year tends to be positive for gold. By combining this pattern with a favourable technical and macroeconomic environment, Brodrick estimates that the price of the precious metal could rise to at least USD 4,100 in the medium term and exceed USD 6,000 in the long term.

Raise the gold, go up, bitcoin.

Although Brodrick does not refer to bitcoin (BTC), his vision coincides with the panorama exposed by Weiss Crypto, which argues that gold behavior is relevant not only to those who invest directly in the metal but also to those who follow the BTC market closely. According to the firm, gold movements usually anticipate several months in advance what will happen with BTC.

Historical analysis shows that the minimums and highs of gold precede those of bitcoin. For example, in August 2018, gold fell, and BTC did so in December of the same year. By November 2021, when BTC reached its historic peak, gold had already stopped climbing, warning of imminent correction.

If the pattern is repeated, the recent strengthening of gold would indicate that BTC has not yet reached its peak. Weiss Crypto estimates that bitcoin could hit a new high in November 2025, based on a model that combines technical analysis and historical data. If gold manages to break the USD 3,450 per ounce, that could point out that the bullish cycle of bitcoin still has room to continue, even well into 2026.

In contrast, if gold weakens in the coming months, that could be taken as an early sign that the bullish cycle of BTC is running out.

Weiss’s approach coincides with that of Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. According to Edwards, factors such as persistent inflation, freezing foreign reserves, and trade conflicts have increased demand for alternative and decentralized assets such as bitcoin and gold.

For Edwards, if the trend continues, bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of 2025. However, he warns that geopolitical tensions could alter that trajectory.

VanEck, an investment firm with exposure to both gold and cryptocurrencies, also maintains an optimistic view. The company highlights the structural advantages of bitcoin as a value reserve against gold. These include: its scheduled shortages, the transparency of its network, and its global transfer capacity.

While acknowledging the high volatility of the asset, the firm claims that a moderate allocation of bitcoin in traditional portfolios can improve risk-adjusted yield, especially in inflation scenarios or expansionary monetary policies.

In this context, the possible bullish glimpse of gold becomes a key signal not only for traditional investors but also for those who follow the evolution of bitcoin closely. If gold confirms its momentum, the BTC market could be on the verge of a new phase of growth.